What could possibly go wrong with robo-advisors?
There are advantages in robo-advisor platforms and they are steadily serving the needs of a previously untapped market segment. They are the mass affluent investors that traditional wealth managers had always rejected.
Robo-advisors provided an easy and affordable entry into the world of discretionary investment management.
However, robo-advisors are not without their limitations. In fact, there are several critical flaws which make them ill-suited for investors who are serious about their long-term wealth:
- Lack of outperformance: the underlying premise of most of these platforms is that the market is efficient and information is symmetrical, therefore rather than trying to outperform, it is far cheaper to just buy indices and maintain benchmark performance with the rest of the market in the long-run. However, it has been shown that a selected group of elite capital allocators (e.g. Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway) can produce superior returns consistently and investors would be better off by sticking with them. With some robo-advisors, it seems you just end up buying market indices and paying an additional fee.
- Lack of diversification: all of the platforms we reviewed invest heavily in ETFs, which incorporate a basket of stocks. However, most ETFs replicate an index via the Market Weight methodology rather than Equal Weight. This results in companies with a high market cap occupying a disproportionately large slice of the portfolio (in many ETFs, the top 10 holdings occupy over 60% of the portfolio) and thus the perceived diversification is in fact the absence of it.
- Concentration of capital: due to the surge in the popularity of ETFs over the last decade (partially fuelled by the rise of robo-advisor platforms), trillions of dollars has been poured into ETFs. Thus significantly inflating their valuation and decreasing the margin of safety.
While the first issue is clear to most investors, the others are largely ignored by the market.
Index funds investing has been going strong for over two decades - on the diagram below you can see that an increasing amount of stocks are owned by index funds.
The ins and outs of index funds
Basically, index funds invest money without basic price discovery. It means that stocks and bonds are being purchased based on the underlying value of the company.
In other words, index funds buy securities at the price the market dictates, unlike Mr. Market, who is notorious for making more impulsive moves in market-weighted indices, that often contribute to potentially disastrous market bubbles.
For Switzerland, the situation is even more worrying. Not only index funds own large portions of shares, but with a quick analysis we found that the largest Swiss ETF holds 43% of its worth in just 3 shares.
Read our more detailed analysis of Swiss ETFs here.
"The largest Swiss ETF holds 43% of its worth in just 3 shares."
None of the reviewed robo advisors do the “advisory” part, instead they just purchase ETFs and this leads to buying securities with high correlation with the markets. Thus the “added value” of robo advisors has nothing to do with “robotics” or “machine learning”, and in essence is just brokerage, not advisory.
As an example, you can see a snapshot of historic performance of TrueWealth made on 09.03.2020, when the market, reaching its top, was hit by coronavirus:
TrueWealth historic performance, “highest growth” package
It’s clear that this robo advisor completely ingored the fact that the market is overheated the market correction caught it unprepared.
The reason for that is that instead of “advising”, this “advisor” invests in just three ETFs.
Where does TrueWealth robo advisor invest
UBS ETF (CH) – SMI (CHF)
Stuckzahl - 56
Wahrung - CHF
Preis - 99,02
Preisdatum - 06.03.20
Posotionswert - CHF 5347.08
Anteil - 59.4%
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
Stuckzahl - 46
Wahrung - USD
Preis - 40,11
Preisdatum - 06.03.20
Posotionswert - CHF 1711.47
Anteil - 19.0%
Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF
Stuckzahl - 12
Wahrung - USD
Preis - 150,59
Preisdatum - 06.03.20
Posotionswert - CHF 1676.24
Anteil - 18.6%
Why then paying additional management fees if you can invest in those ETFs directly?